By 2023, the percentage of internet users in Germany between 12 and 17 who use Facebook will drop to just more than one-third. We expect usage among those ages 34 and younger to continue declining through 2023.
Adoption among older users is failing to pick up the slack. In 2019, the number of Facebook users 35 and older will grow just 2.6%, a significant slowdown from 4.7% last year. In fact, by 2021, additional users ages 35 and older will no longer offset declines among those under 35 years old—and total Facebook user growth in Germany will decline slightly.
“The good news for Facebook is that Instagram will pick up at least some of the lost core Facebook users in both France and Germany,” said Jasmine Enberg, senior analyst at eMarketer. “The question is whether Instagram can continue making up for Facebook’s losses. Competing platforms like Snapchat are diversifying their services and other digital entertainment options, including video and messaging, and continue to capture consumer attention.”
France
The story is similar in France, but user growth will turn negative sooner than in Germany. The total number of Facebook users will drop this year for the first time by 0.2% to 28.0 million people. The decline will be driven by those ages 17 and younger leaving the platform.
The number of users ages 11 and younger will drop by 2.7% this year, while the number of those ages 12 to 17 will drop by 9.3%—the largest decline of any age group.