Holiday 2018 Forecast Update

As new economic data pours in from Q3, and as the November-December holiday season officially begins, we have updated our forecast for total US retail and ecommerce sales. Despite greater macroeconomic uncertainty than in previous quarters, the Q4 outlook for consumer spending remains very positive. As a result, we have raised our forecasts.

• How much will US consumers spend on retail and ecommerce this holiday season? We forecast that total retail spending will surpass $1 trillion, while ecommerce will account for $123.73 billion.
• What’s driving the increased holiday forecast? US macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP growth, a strong labor market and positive consumer sentiment, are contributing to one of the best consumer discretionary spending environments in years. But high gas prices are also a key factor.
• Which retailers will be winners this season? While ecommerce leader Amazon is poised for a strong holiday season once again, several brick-and-mortar retailers, including Walmart and Target, are also primed for success as shoppers get back out to physical stores.